New computation model estimates cost of Zika outbreak in the United States

A recent computational analysis revealed that even a mild outbreak of Zika virus in the United States could cost more than $183 million in medical expenses and productivity losses, according to a study from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Results of the study were published in a recent issue of PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Focusing on five southeastern U.S. states and Texas, the study examined the potential impact of an outbreak based on a variety of epidemic sizes. The locations were chosen based on the dense presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the mosquito most likely to transmit Zika in the Americas.

The computational model also took into account doctor visits, laboratory tests, and the lifetime costs for caring for a child born with microcephaly, a severe birth defect that has been linked to Zika infection.

Results of the model revealed that such an economic impact could be seen in as small an outbreak of 0.01 percent of the population, or around 7,000 people. If an outbreak infected as many as one percent of the population, or around 704,000 infections, the costs would rise up to $1.2 billion. If the attack rate rose to one percent of the population, the model estimated approximately 200 cases of microcephaly and 423 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome would arise.

“Zika is still spreading silently and we are just now approaching mosquito season in the United States, which has the potential of significantly increasing the spread,” Bruce Y. Lee, who led the study, said. “There’s still a lot we don’t know about the virus, but it is becoming clear that more resources will be needed to protect public health. Understanding what a Zika epidemic might look like, however, can really help us with planning and policy making as we prepare.”