University of Texas at Austin researchers develop computer model to assess risk of Zika epidemic in real-time

A computer model to assess the impact of a Zika virus epidemic in the United States, taking into account important data such as population dynamics, historical infection rates, socioeconomic status and mosquito density, was recently developed by researchers from the University of Texas (UT) at Austin.

Research from the study can be found in a recent issue of the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. The model is the first of its kind to assess both the risk of Zika arrival in an area and the risk of local transmission by mosquitoes.

The model found that Travis and Harris Counties, which contain the cities of Austin and Houston, contain the highest rates of Zika introductions by incoming travelers. In addition, a number of counties located in the southeastern portion of the state, which are more humid than others, were found to have the highest risk of Zika transmission from one person to another.

A 2016 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report recommended that public health officials trigger an epidemic intervention when two non-familial, locally-acquired cases of Zika are reported in the area. Most recently, a Zika outbreak occurred in Cameron County in November 2016.

“Our model was designed to quantify the risk of local Zika outbreaks as cases accumulate across Texas, taking into account international travel patterns, mosquito habitat, and the low detection rate of Zika infections,” Spencer Fox, co-lead author of the study, said. “Its flexible framework can be readily applied to other US states and adapted for risk assessments of other emerging arboviruses, including Chikungunya, Dengue, and Yellow fever.”