GAO reviews use of predictive modeling for infectious disease outbreaks

Leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee requested a review on Thursday to gauge how federal agencies are using predictive modeling and simulations to prepare for and respond to Zika, Ebola and other infectious disease outbreaks.

A recent Government Accountability (GAO) report found that studies deploying modeling and simulation technology could be used to estimate infectious disease outbreaks with greater accuracy, fostering more effective planning and use of public health resources.

The report also noted that insufficient data and methods are challenges that currently hamper infectious disease modeling. In response, U.S. Reps. Greg Walden (R-OR), the chairman of the committee, Frank Pallone Jr. (D-NJ), the ranking member of the committee, and Diana DeGette (D-CO), the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, requested that the GAO review how federal agencies are currently using predictive models to guide regulatory and policy decisions.

“These challenges increase uncertainty in model estimates, which can lead to delays in actions needed to control or mitigate the effects of emerging diseases,” the letter stated. “We are interested in how federal agencies have used predictive models to inform decision-making in recent outbreaks and the limitations and challenges in developing infectious disease model predictions.”

Specifically, the lawmakers requested that GAO review how federal agencies are currently using predictive models or simulation, what role the federal government plays in producing emerging infectious disease models, how medical product sponsors use modeling and simulation, and whether federal agencies have validated emerging infectious disease model predictions.