Researchers calculate expected number of deaths, economic losses in rare pandemic scenarios

A new study published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization found that the global spread of a serious infectious disease could cause 700,000 deaths and annual economic losses of US$500 billion.

“Pandemic risk: How large are the expected losses” applied a theoretical model to forecast the expected number of deaths and economic losses in rare pandemic scenarios.

The expected economic losses calculated in the study are much higher than those found in previous studies, which, the paper said, means “there is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics.”

The annual economic losses equal 0.6 percent of global income and fall within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimates of the costs of global warming.

“Policymakers may be able to estimate the economic losses that come with rare but potentially devastating events,” said Victoria Fan, an assistant professor in the Office of Public Health Studies in the Myron B. Thompson School of Social Work at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and lead author of the study. “We hope this can lead to more appropriate adjustments for national policies and investments, and international collaborations on pandemic preparedness.”

The model used in the study could also be applied to other outbreaks such as malaria and catastrophic events such as nuclear attack.