DHS Science and Technology Directorate developing Predictive Threat Model to identify, stop criminal aircraft

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) announced recently that it is developing a Predictive Threat Model (PTM) to help Custom and Border Protection’s (CBP) Air and Marine Operations Center (AMOC) identify and stop nefarious aircraft.

“We can rethink how we do business with the monumental progress this brings to us,” Tony Crowder, Executive Director at AMOC, said. “We owe this success to the teamwork of the Domain Awareness Federation and the collaboration within DHS S&T.”

The technology would target small, non-commercial flyers classified as general aviation (GA) small aircraft, GA jets, ultralights and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) that could be involved in potential terror threats, drug smuggling, and other illegal activity.

The PTM uses data from past AMOC cases and artificial intelligence to identify certain behavior profiles of previously interdicted aircraft and predict future threats. Information such as location, radio signal, and flight destination, could be combined in the system to predict the intentions of a criminal aircraft.

The PTM has accurately predicted suspect behaviors in testing at the AMOC.

It has completed the initial prototype phase and is in now a six- to nine-month operational period during which it will undergo further enhancements and development. The third phase will be the final operational implementation at AMOC.