Nipah virus outbreak holds potential to escalate into ‘international incident’

With the death toll from the ongoing Nipah virus outbreak in India rising to at least 17, EcoHealth Alliance officials have warned that the outbreak could become an international incident if it spreads to neighboring states.

The outbreak is centered in the Indian state of Kerala. Five nearby airports in Calicut, Cochin, Trivandrum, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka offer international flights, fueling the potential for the outbreak to spread from its point of origin.

Using its FLIRT software platform that predicts outbreaks, EcoHealth Alliance has evaluated flight networks to determine where infected passengers are most likely to spread the pathogens. India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Singapore top the list of countries most connected to the outbreak point of origin. The United States ranked 17th on the list.

“We’re monitoring this Nipah outbreak daily,” EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak said. “If the virus spreads to any of the nearby states, as some fear it already has, the odds of Nipah becoming an international problem grow substantially. Goa, in particular, is a very popular vacation destination for many in Europe and Russia.”

FLIRT can factor both direct and multi-leg flights into its analyses. EcoHealth Alliance Director of Data Science Toph Allen said the projections could help public health officials “get in front of outbreaks before they’re given a chance to become full-blown pandemics.”

Often spread from fruit bats to humans through palm sap, there is currently no treatment or vaccine for Nipah virus. The virus can only be transmitted through the urine, saliva or vomit of an infected host.