GAO examines long-range emerging threats

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) released last week a report examining long-range emerging national security threats, with federal agencies identifying 26 potential harms within four categories.

The category breakdown is comprised of adversaries’ political and military advancements, dual-use technologies, weapons and events, and demographic changes.

National security threats will continue to evolve, officials said, with the advent of new and resurgent adversaries developing politically and militarily, the advancement of
weapons and technology and environmental and demographic changes.

GAO officials said the effort involved analyzing more than 210 individual threats identified by organizations across the Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The report also included a review of national security strategies, related documents, and interviews with key agency officials.

A questionnaire was administered to 45 government organizations. The process yielded a 78 percent response rate.

The analysis stems from a House committee report accompanying a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018. The measure included a provision for GAO to identify emerging threats of high national security consequence. Long-range emerging threats have been categorized as those that may occur in approximately five or more years or those that may occur during an unknown time frame.