Lawmakers initiate Russia, China START queries

Three lawmakers recently forwarded correspondence to the Acting Director of National Intelligence seeking answers regarding the possible expiration of the Russia and China New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).

Sens. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Todd Young (R-IN) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) have requested Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire formally conduct a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on how Russia and China will react if the United States allows New START to expire in February 2021.

Since its activation in 2011, New START has significantly limited the size of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and provided transparency through onsite inspections and other means into Russia’s nuclear capabilities, officials said.

“If New START is allowed to dissolve and no replacement agreement arises, the United States will find itself in an environment in which Russia’s nuclear arsenal is entirely unconstrained,” the legislators wrote. “We believe the negative consequences for the United States of abandoning New START, when Russia is in compliance with the treaty and is seeking to extend it, would be grave in the short-term and long-term.”

The lawmakers maintain the NIE request is in the wake of considering issues surrounding international security in an unconstrained nuclear environment.

In their letter, the senators asked Maguire about the changes Russia is committed to making to its nuclear forces in New START expires in February 2021, as well as the conclusions the Russian government and military might draw about U.S. strategy if the United States decides not to extend New START. Similarly, the senators asked about how such a decision might shape China’s thinking about overall U.S.-Chinese relations.