North Arizona University research initiative aids COVID-19 projections

Northern Arizona University researchers have developed computer modeling systems designed to predict outcomes of the regional spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19.

The approach is being implemented across Coconino, Navajo, Apache, and Mohave counties in response to the Flagstaff Medical Center’s previous call to model the spread of the virus for emergency planning and the requesting of adequate resources from state and federal authorities.

“In all four counties, the pathogen is moderately under control, although there is regional variability, with some populations more at risk,” said project lead Joe Mihaljevic, mathematical epidemiologist and assistant professor in Northern Arizona University’s School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems (SICCS). “We are slowing the virus, but now we want to understand what will happen if we start to remove the interventions in place, like social and physical distancing. You might have heard we’ve reached the peak. In disease outbreaks, there can be multiple peaks. Easing restrictions too soon can mean multiple lockdowns.”

Mihaljevic applied for and received a $200,000 one-year grant through the Rapid Response Research (RAPID) funding mechanism that supports virus-related research, collaborating with computer scientist and SICCS professor Eck Doerry and evolutionary biologist and SICCS assistant professor Crystal Hepp, an assistant director of NAU’s Pathogen and Microbiome Institute.

“Our goal is to develop a cyberinfrastructure, a web application to help us communicate the results of our modeling to public health and healthcare stakeholders who can visually interact with the model and manipulate the parameters to explore these scenarios and make informed decisions for a data-driven public health plan,” Mihaljevic said.