UW researchers develop COVID-19 infection lowering model

University of Washington (UW) researchers have received a $33,000 grant to develop a model using local data to potentially aid in lowering COVID-19 infections in King County.

The UW delegation is one of nine global groups receiving Society for Medical Decision Making’s COVID-19 Decision Modeling Initiative funds, noting the projects would last four to six months and focus on developing models to help inform policymakers.

“We will be simulating the impact of various interventions — including social distancing measures, school closure policies, testing capacity, contact-tracing strategies and mask wearing — on population health outcomes,” said Shan Liu, lead researcher and
a UW associate professor of industrial and systems engineering. “Once a vaccine becomes available, we plan to expand the model to simulate vaccination rollout and coverage, and optimize for the best delivery configuration, such as vaccination priority if supply is limited.”

Liu said the team’s methods and policy insights should be generalizable to other urban areas, indicating researchers plan to make their final model accessible to other researchers online.

“There are quite a few good COVID-19 forecasting models that provide useful predictions on future trends, but our model adds the decision-making capability from an operations research perspective,” Liu said. “Our approach optimizes public health policies using a large-scale simulation model and provides actionable insights on the best interventions to save lives and minimize social disruptions in King County and beyond.”