COVAX publishes initial COVID-19 vaccine distribution forecast

World Health Organization (WHO) officials have joined UNICEF, the
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Gavi, and the Vaccine Alliance in touting COVAX’s first COVID-19 vaccine interim distribution forecast.

Building on the publication of the 2021 COVAX global and regional supply forecast, the COVAX analysis shares insight regarding the early availability of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine to participants.

The document contains information on the indicative distribution of 240 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, licensed to Serum Institute of India (SII) – (AZ/SII) and 96 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, under the advance purchase agreement between Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and AstraZeneca (AZ), for Q1 & Q2 2021.

The interim distribution forecast outlines the projected delivery of vaccine doses to all facility participants except for participants who have either exercised their rights to opt-out, have not submitted vaccine requests, or have not yet been allocated doses.

The purpose of the document is to provide governments and health systems with the information needed to plan for national vaccination programs. Final allocations would be published in due course.

The AstraZeneca vaccine’s final allocation will be undertaken following process and governance outlined to and agreed upon by all facility participants and subject to the validation of the Independent Allocation of Vaccine Group (IAVG).

The indicative distribution is based on current communication of estimated availability from manufacturers.