House lawmakers seek improved intelligence analysis of foreign military will to fight

A year on, the United States is still learning lessons from its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and U.S. Reps. Jason Crow (D-CO) and Peter Meijer (R-MI) this week introduced the Will to Fight Act to guarantee foreign national resolve is on the list for study.

“As an Army Ranger in Iraq and Afghanistan, I learned that America is most safe and secure when we work with our partners and allies, and those relationships are essential for our mission success,” Crow said. “But investments in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places have shown that we must do a better job assessing the capabilities and resolve of some of our partner forces. I’m proud to work with Rep. Meijer to better equip our intelligence agencies with the tools needed to more effectively assess the capabilities and will to fight of our partners and international forces.”

Their bill seeks an intelligence community review of procedures and determination of lessons learned from the governments and armed forces of Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq, respectively. The hope is that a proper analysis would give the community a greater understanding of the thinking foreign governments and militaries follow and, in turn, allow early warnings and better policy decisions in the future.

Afghanistan has become a sticking point for this, given how badly the military establishment overestimated the situation leading up to the U.S. military withdrawal and rapid collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. While the intelligence community had initially determined the Afghan government could fend off Taliban attacks for up to two years in the face of U.S. withdrawal, the estimate was revised in June 2021 to predict a collapse in 6-12 months. Both figures proved inaccurate, with government forces collapsing within mere days of U.S. troops’ departure that August, followed by a rapid seizure of the country by Taliban forces.

“Our intelligence community is a critical asset for the United States government in our mission to protect Americans, secure the homeland from threats, and conduct a foreign policy that advances U.S. interests,” Meijer said. “Twice in the last year, however, policymakers in Washington have been caught unprepared when predicted outcomes in Afghanistan and Ukraine differed dramatically from realities on the ground. The will to fight and commitment to a cause are some of the intangibles that can ultimately decide the outcomes of war.”

Regarding Ukraine, the U.S. intelligence community predicted a quick loss to Russia in its ongoing war, though it accurately predicted an invasion in general. However, the war has morphed into a stalemate, with continuous, fierce fighting months later.

The Will to Fight Act was included in the FY23 Intelligence Authorization Act and, as such, advanced out of House committee for consideration by the larger body.