Scientists at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) have developed predictive, end-to-end modeling capabilities that can differentiate between conventional high explosives weapons tests and non-nuclear explosives tests that are part of a nuclear weapons program.
Developed by the NNSA Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation research and development program, the system deploys a combination of advanced physics design codes and new models to monitor and analyze non-nuclear explosive tests around the world.
“Since the United States ended its explosive nuclear testing program in 1992, it has relied on computational modeling and simulations to ensure the performance, safety, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile,” an NNSA release stated. “These efforts present an opportunity for NNSA’s Research and Development program to advance capabilities for detecting signs of non-nuclear testing that indicate early proliferation efforts.”
Leaning on those modeling capabilities, researchers at the Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, and Pacific Northwest national laboratories developed a simulation framework that models that key traits non-nuclear test devices from detonation to combustion. Modeling predictors are then compared to data from real hydrodynamic tests at the Nevada National Security Site.
“One of the key objectives of the program is to have a modeling capability that will help NNSA’s partners determine whether a test was merely a conventional, high-explosive test or one of nuclear proliferation concern,” NNSA stated. “NNSA’s investment serves the dual purpose of advancing both the nonproliferation and stockpile stewardship missions.”