An international team of researchers have statistically predicted where mosquitoes will spread through the use of 35 years of data and 17 climate change models.
That spread data includes everything from short to long-term timeframes and, the scientists note, is precise within 5×5 kilometers. The goal of the endeavour, led by Dr. Moritz Kramer of the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology, is to create a tool for public health officials to use for targeting and combating disease outbreak.
“By combining data on the history of mosquito species spread, human population movements and climatic factors we have been able to reconstruct and predict the future of these disease-carrying mosquitoes,” Kramer said. “We hope that these high resolution maps will be used to target specific geographic areas for surveillance, control and elimination of these harmful mosquito populations.”
An immediate effect of this has been to highlight areas of special concern: chiefly, large urban environments in the southern United States and southern China. The results of these efforts were published in the journal Nature Microbiology.