The United States is increasingly turning to biodefense as threats against the homeland continue to grow, but the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey’s Dr. Raymond Zilinskas recently warned that the larger problem remains that no one knows the true state of American biodefense.
“I don’t know and I don’t think anyone knows,” Zilinskas, director of the chemical and biological weapons nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and a technical consultant on biological warfare details on season four of “The Americans,” told Homeland Preparedness News.
Part of the troubles in determining how to prepare for a biological event are the numerous types of threats, including accidents, bioterrorism, biological warfare and naturally occurring events.
“Nature is by far the biggest threat,” Zilinskas said. “”H1N1 is just one example from 2009. That one the U.S. handled fairly well.”
The 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic was first described in April 2009, affecting both those older than 60 years of age, as is common in an influenza pandemic, and previously very healthy people. By June, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had stopped counting new cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic. As many as 200 million people worldwide were infected during the pandemic, which led to 18,500 deaths, according to the WHO.
Despite the staggering number of infected, the death toll remained low. Zilinskas attributed that to the quick response to the outbreak and work by hospitals. As a result, he said, the U.S. is now set up to handle future events.
“What worries me (since then) is (that) the public health system has been hurt at the local level and (by) funding constraints,” Zilinskas said. “[L]ook at the anthrax letters on Capitol Hill. That could have been much worse if the attack had been on the Washington, DC metro system. What would have happened if thousands of people had been affected?”
The 2001 anthrax attacks, which saw letters containing anthrax spores sent to two Democratic U.S. senators and several news media offices, resulted in five deaths and 17 non-fatal injuries.
To prevent such an incident, Zilinskas says that intelligence gathering needs to be a vital part of the overall U.S. biodefense strategy.
“We need to identify the groups or individuals that might be involved in chemical or biological attacks,” Zilinskas said. “Then it is important to assess their abilities. And finally, we have to identify their intent. All of this happens at the intel level.”
To accomplish that, the FBI has “massively” increased its biological component, Zilinskas said, adding that he is impressed with the FBI’s capabilities. Biological preparedness, however, is not all that is needed, Zilinskas said. The nation must also turn its attention to chemical weapons attacks and how to protect the nation from them.
“I don’t worry so much about American forces, assuming there are detectors,” Zilinskas said. “It’s not like a city where people are sitting ducks without protection.”
Despite that, Zilinskas said that he isn’t concerned about a chemical attack on American soil.
In the face of myriad threats, Zilinskas said that preparedness can be one of the most effective tools. Additionally, the U.S. should look to past events, such as the H1N1 outbreak, to learn how best to respond to any pandemic, including man-made ones.
“America as a whole has to put more emphasis on the public health system,” Zilinskas said.