Seventy-five years after the first controlled nuclear chain reaction, Ernest Moniz, co-chair and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), recently warned that the United States faces “a different nuclear age” with miscalculation, diplomatic tensions, terrorism, technological advancements and cyberattacks all fueling nuclear threats.
In an address before the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Jan. 12, Moniz, who served as Secretary of Energy under the Obama administration, warned that international rules that have helped prevent nuclear conflict since 1945 have been undermined in recent years.
“The combination of advances in technology, tensions between nation-states, terrorism and cyber dangers must challenge traditional thinking about nuclear weapons policies, the risk of nuclear weapon use, the configuration and deployment of our forces and the priorities of our investments,” Moniz said. “Maintaining a safe, secure and reliable deterrent is necessary in today’s world — but is not sufficient. The risks of miscalculation should be at the forefront of our thinking and an important driver of our analyses.”
Deterrence isn’t enough because nuclear use by miscalculation — accidents, mistakes or catastrophic terrorism — are the most likely precursors of nuclear strikes. As a result, the United States should reexamine its strategic policies and near-term decisions, force posture and doctrine, Moniz said.
“If the recently-released National Security Strategy is a guide to the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), we could be heading in the wrong direction,” Moniz warned. “Expanding the types of threats against which nuclear weapons might be used under the banner of deterrence likely will make the risks of miscalculation greater, not less. For those who argue that the U.S. needs more ‘usable’ nuclear options to enhance deterrence, they have a high burden to explain why the present options are insufficient.”
Moniz also highlighted ongoing tensions between the United States and Russia, Iran and North Korea. However, Moniz called for stronger strategic relations between the United States and Russia when it comes to cyber threats, management of conventional and nuclear forces, and terrorists’ acquisition of nuclear weapons.
And “unprecedented, international verification provisions” negotiated under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would be jeopardized if President Donald Trump follows through on threats to refuse approval of sanctions waivers for Iran, Moniz said.
“It’s ironic that with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran has the toughest constraints on its nuclear program of any nation on the planet and the most demanding verification regime,” Moniz said. “Yet, the president may take action imminently to remove these constraints with no viable alternative.”
While critics of the deal are focused on the 15-year prohibition on Iran having more than 300 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 3.67 percent, Moniz said, they fail to recognize provisions that don’t sunset, including a permanent prohibition on Iran having a nuclear weapon or weaponization program.
“We must also draw lessons from the JCPOA for broader fuel cycle considerations,” Moniz added. “As we look ahead a few years, we are likely to confront more ‘Iran-like’ circumstances unless we can build verification enhancements to fuel cycle management and develop better solutions for fuel and waste services. Advances in technology are making weapons capabilities easier to acquire under a safeguards regime that can and should be strengthened to fully meet its purpose.”
Turning to North Korea, Moniz said the president’s public “war of words” with Kim Jong Un had unsettled U.S. allies. The North Korean leader took “diplomatic initiative” with outreach to South Korea on North Korea’s participation in the Olympics, Moniz continued, and the Trump administration should build on that.
“… Some believe Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Day claim that the ‘power and reliability of (nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles) have already been proved to the full’ opens the door to a freeze on nuclear and long-range ballistic missile tests,” Moniz said. “We should find a way to probe the North Koreans on that point, and exploit that opening if in fact there is one.”
When it comes to the NPR review, Moniz said that preventing the potential for miscalculation should be “in the forefront of our thinking about nuclear weapons policy, force posture, and modernization priorities.”
“The United States should structure and posture its nuclear forces to deter any nation from attacking us or our allies with a nuclear weapon,” Moniz said. “The emphasis should be on safe, secure, credible and survivable nuclear forces that reduce, not increase, incentives for nuclear use — and reduce the risk of an accidental or unauthorized launch of a nuclear missile. We also need to ensure that our nuclear weapons are safe from instability and theft, so that they are never used against us or our allies.”
To further reduce the threat of miscalculation in North Korea and elsewhere in the world, Moniz said that revised prompt-launch postures must be used to increase decision times for leaders of nuclear states, to secure nuclear weapons and materials and to establish a comprehensive verification regime that could eliminate nuclear weapons altogether, Moniz said.
“Now more than ever, the United States still has a unique responsibility and imperative to lead and set the right course,” Moniz concluded. “The nuclear policy and posture Washington sets in the coming weeks will determine America’s path for the next years — and decisions on Russia, Iran and the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] potentially for decades.”