A collection of international researchers recently developed a mathematical framework to estimate the global value of investing in bacterial infection antibiotics.
Specifically, the research pertains to Staphylococcus aureus infections, a drug-resistant infection that could potentially fuel pandemics. To date, the scientists from the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP), the University of Strathclyde in Scotland, and Wageningen University in the Netherlands, say that approximately three pandemic influenza outbreaks have ravaged the globe over the past 400 years, and secondary bacterial infections play a significant role in fueling resulting deaths.
“Although influenza is caused by a virus, which cannot be treated with antibiotics, secondary bacterial infections are a major cause of death and disability and antibiotic resistance is a major barrier to treating these infections,” Ramanan Laxminarayan, CDDEP director and senior author of the study, said. “This study shows that the value of an effective antibiotic against Staph infections, as an insurance policy against future pandemics, is between $3 billion and 4 billion at baseline.”
Laxminarayan’s team based their model on United Kingdom preparedness plan assumptions. They determined that withholding an effective oral antibiotic can be significant–unless the pandemic is mild, brings few secondary infections, or most patients can be treated intravenously.
Lacking antibiotics, secondary infections caused by pan-drug resistant bacteria could be devastating, the researchers said.