Rising temperatures brought on by climate change could expose as many as a billion more people to disease-carrying mosquitoes, according to a new study published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.
As temperatures rise across the globe, the territory of these mosquitoes expands, as well as the duration of their reign in traditional territories. They are already reaching locations they have never been before, and with that growth comes exposure.
“Climate change is the largest and most comprehensive threat to global health security,” study co-lead Colin Carlson, global change biologist and postdoctoral fellow in Georgetown University’s biology department, said. “Mosquitoes are only a part of the challenge, but after the Zika outbreak in Brazil in 2015, we’re especially worried about what comes next.”
Led by Sadie Ryan of the University of Florida and Carlson, the research team involved in this analysis says this carries a danger for explosive outbreaks if they pop up in the right place under the right conditions.
More than a dozen diseases could reach almost all of the world’s population within the next 50 years, these scientists conclude. Periods of reprieve will also be greatly lessened due to growing exposure rates. For the tropics, this could mean year-round transmission periods, even as the intensity of such infections rises.
“These diseases, which we think of as strictly tropical, have been showing up already in areas with suitable climates, such as Florida, because humans are very good at moving both bugs and their pathogens around the globe,” Ryan, associate professor of medical geography at the University of Florida, said.
That said, if climate change continues racing forward, there could be a time when the heat proves too much even for mosquitoes. Specifically, the breed of mosquito that carries things like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika would meet their match — though Carlson reminds that if it’s too bad for disease and mosquitoes, humans will have plenty of other health concerns to worry about.
While only the beginning of research into the regional effects of global warming, the team has examined month by month temperature projections through 2050 and 2080.