The latest dengue research reveals that within approximately 60 years, the risk of the virus dengue will grow to such an extent that it will put at risk more than 6 billion people, due to population growth, climate change, and increased urbanization.
The virus is one spread by mosquitoes, and analysis of climate change data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), urbanization and control data shows their risk spreading across the southeastern United States, coastal areas of China and Japan, and inland regions of Australia. The former will see the virus spread to new lands, but the latter will entrench it where it is already endemic, as in Africa.
“We found that the population at risk of dengue will grow substantially and disproportionately in many areas that are economically disadvantaged and least able to cope with increased demands on health systems,” said Dr. Simon Hay, co-author and Director of Geospatial Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington. “Mitigation strategies must focus on dengue-endemic areas, not just the risk of expansion to Western nations. Taking action now by investing in trials of novel vaccines and mosquito control and planning for sustainable population growth and urbanization are crucial steps for reducing the impact of the virus.”
Demographic changes in areas where the disease lurks already will be the most responsible factor in dengue growth, according to the study. Specific locations, however, like central East Africa and India will face less risk in coming years.
“What was most surprising was actually how much less spread we predict in comparison to previous dengue maps,” said Dr. Oliver Brady, co-author of the paper and an Assistant Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Dengue already represents the greatest insect-borne disease threat. It is responsible for around 10,000 deaths each year, according to the World Health Organization, and lacks any specific treatment.
This latest research was published in Nature Microbiology.