A model created by the University College London could be used to predict the next Ebola outbreak by tracking how changes to ecosystems combined with human societies affect the disease’s spread.
The model takes into account factors such as human population, land use, and the impact of climate. Researchers were able to predict previous outbreaks with a high degree of accuracy using the model.
Researchers found several African countries could be at risk for an Ebola outbreak despite having no known cases.
In areas with slower socioeconomic development and increased warming, Ebola outbreaks are 1.6 times more likely. Poor communities are disproportionately affected by outbreaks, and more than two-thirds of infectious diseases originate in animals.
“It is vital that we understand the complexities causing animal-borne diseases to spill-over into humans, to accurately predict outbreaks and help save lives,” Dr. David Redding, one of the study’s authors, said. “In our models, we’ve included more information about the animals that carry Ebola and, by doing so, we can better account for how changes in climate, land-use or human societies can affect human health.”
The results of the study were published recently in Nature Communications.
Since August 2018, more than 2,100 people have died of Ebola.