The last remaining arms control treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, New START, expires on Feb. 5 – a cause for concern, advocates said recently.
Christine Wormuth, president and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a non-proliferation advocacy group, said the treaty’s expiration marks the beginning of a dangerous new era globally, as it marks the first time in several decades the major nuclear powers have not limits on their nuclear weapons, less visibility in their nuclear weapons activities, and fewer tools to manage crises between the world’s nuclear powers.
“This problem will not solve itself, and the stakes are too high for inaction. An arms race already looms. New START has been instrumental to underpinning nuclear stability between the United States and Russia—but it was a treaty built for the past 15 years, not the next 15,” Wormuth said in a statement.
“China’s nuclear expansion, increased Russian nuclear coercion, and growing competition in emerging technologies and the cyber and space domains make the strategic landscape more multipolar and multidimensional,” Wormuth added. “Geopolitical flashpoints in Europe and the Asia-Pacific and an increasingly unpredictable international arena compound nuclear risks. The absence of guardrails on the U.S.-Russia nuclear relationship will further strain U.S. extended deterrence and an already fragile nuclear nonproliferation regime.”
Wormuth said a renewed U.S.-Russian arms race would increase pressure on the U.S. to spend money on nuclear weapons and divert funding from conventional defense and domestic priorities. The U.S. nuclear modernization program already faces significant delays and ballooning costs, she said. Maintaining a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent will become more challenging in an unconstrained and more unpredictable strategic environment.
NTI urged U.S. decisionmakers to prioritize engaging Russia into diplomatic efforts to avert an arms race and rebuild nuclear guardrails and to ensure sustained and substantive talks with China on nuclear risk reduction.
“These steps are not easy, and they should begin now,” she said. “The world is entering a period of unpredictable and intensifying competition. New START expiration presents an opportunity to prioritize efforts to prevent nuclear use in an increasingly dangerous world.”