Lloyd’s, a specialized insurance and reinsurance market, recently commissioned Chatham House to produce a study involving the risks of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons to improve the public knowledge of these threats.
The report highlights strategic trends in CBRN threats, including potential perpetrators, technological and scientific capabilities, dual-use materials, terrorist and saboteur threats, probabilities of use, disincentives for acquisition and use, and potential geographical locations.
As a countermeasure, the report details how emerging technologies can help authorities in the face of CBRN threats. Emerging technologies include nanotechnology, synthetic biology and chemicals, cyber technology, drone technology, three dimensional printing, and radiologic detection.
The report also details extreme, but plausible, weapons-use scenarios. The examples give insight as to where some weaknesses lie in homeland security. Possible scenarios include explosions of sodium cyanide containers in a port, ricin poisoning at a music festival, detonation of a radiological dispersion device in a busy city center and detonation of an improvised nuclear device in a heavily populated city.
Lloyd’s notes in the conclusion that while CBRN use is unlikely, chemical weapons would be among the most likely of scenarios should a weapon be used.